Wednesday 6 February 2013

Variance is my friend.

I love variance. Variance is the main reason that it’s much easier to make money at poker then at no variance game like chess for example. Variance is making sure that loosing players win sometimes and keep coming back to play again. Variance fueling delusional people’s beliefs that they are good at poker because they win sometimes and only bad luck doesn't allow them to win constantly. Seeing variance unknowledgeable people believe that poker is a game of luck, which is great because it gives them reason to not improve. Nobody needs skills in the game of luck.

When I embraced variance I realized that having more variance in a game is great for me. So now I’m trying to generate it when game is lacking it. For example in bad 2/5 tight passive game full of short stacks hand might play out this way:

MP (300) limps 5h5d
I fold Qd9c in HJ
CO (250) limps 7c8c
BTN limps, blinds complete. Pot $25. 
Flop Kd5c6h. Blinds check, MP checks to trap, CO checks, BTN checks.
Turn 9s. Blinds check, MP bets $15. CO calls to trap. All fold. Pot $55.
River 7d. MP checks scared of straight. CO bets $25, trying to get call from top pair. MP calls. Pot $105. Casino takes $10 rake (10%). Stack sizes now: MP $255, CO $345. Is this good for me? No, because now it’s $10 less for me to win at the table.

What if I try to introduce a bit more variance in this game?
MP (300) limps 5h5d
I raise Qd9c in HJ to $25
CO (250) calls 7c8c
BTN folds, blinds fold. MP calls. Pot $82. 
Flop Kd5c6h. MP checks to trap, I bet $35, CO calls, MP raises to 70, I fold, CO calls. Pot $232.
Turn 9s. MP bets 75, CO goes AI for 155, MP calls.
River 7d. Pot 542. CO wins with straight. Casino takes $15 rake (2.8%). MP reloads for 300. Stack sizes now: MP $300, CO $527. And I’m loving this. Yes, I just lost $60. But what do I get in return? 
1. There are $285 more at the table for me to win
2. MP is super tilted that he lost with flopped set. It’s very likely he’s now going to spew some more trying to get even.
3. CO is now full stack and he’s not used to play deep. He’s happy, orders another beer and will tend to chase his draws for any money, reinforced with positive result.
This outcome is great for me. Also I don’t really lose $60 here in the long run. Next time flop comes Kd2c6h and I take it down with cbet. So this is win-win situation.

Do I want to reduce variance in my results? Obviously, yes! But what’s not so obvious is how? I believe the only way to reduce variance is to increase your win rate by increasing your skills advantage over your opponents. Thinking of extreme example: if you have opponent who plays with his hole cards face up. It’s going to be pretty hard to lose in this game. Your win rate will be very big and variance is very low. (You still lose occasionally when you go all-in preflop with AA vs KK for example). So, to reduce variance I thrive to study poker off the table as much as possible. And it pays off in the long run.

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