There are different levels of thinking on which poker players can play.
For example:
Level 1 player thinks about his hand. All beginning players start on this level. Their thought process goes like this: “I have Tc2d, flop is Ts9s8s. I have top pair. Top pair is a good hand, so I’m not going to fold to all this crazy bets and raises”.
Level 2 player thinks about what hand his opponent have. For example: “I cbet two tone flop and got called. Now flush card comes on the turn. My opponent must have hit his flush so I’m not going to put any more money in the pot.”
Level 3 thinks about what his opponent think about his hand. “I raised preflop and cbet flop. Now Ace comes on the turn. If I bet my opponent will put me on AK so this is a good spot to bluff. ”
Level 4 thinks about what his opponent thinking about what he thinks about opponent’s hand. “Scare card comes on the turn and my opponent bets. This is a good spot for him to bluff so I should call him with my 3-rd pair.”
And so on…
To exploit your opponent’s way of thinking you need to think on exactly one level above him. There is no point in being on level 3 and trying to bluff level 1 thinker – he’s just not going to fold his pair no matter how scary the board is.
Saturday 26 January 2013
Thursday 24 January 2013
Combinatorics
How many ways we can have AA in our hand?
AcAs, AcAd, AcAh, AsAd, AsAh, AdAh – total 6 possible combinations.
How many ways we can have AK? – 16 (you can count yourself).
Now more interesting question: How many ways our opponent can have AA when we have Ad in our hand?
AcAs, AcAh, AsAh – total of 3 possible combinations.
So when we were dealt an Ace chances that our opponent was dealt two Aces are less by 50% Our Ace blocks half of his combinations. We can say we have a ‘blocker’ to AA.
How to use this knowledge on practice?
Say our tight opponent open raises preflop from early position. We think he can have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK or AQ. When we look at our hand we see that we were dealt AK. Now we can deduce distribution of hands in our opponent’s range. He has 3 combos of AA, 3 of KK, 6 of QQ, 6 of JJ, 9 of AK and 12 of AQ for a total of 39 combinations.
From here we know that he has:
AA 3 out of 39 - 8%,
KK 3 out of 39 - 8%,
QQ, JJ, AK 21 out of 39 - 54%,
AQ 12 out of 39 – 30% of time.
Now let’s calculate our equity versus his range:
AK has 8% vs AA,
30% vs KK,
50% vs QQ, JJ and AK,
70% vs AQ.
For a total of 8 * 0.08 + 30 * 0.08 + 50 * 0.54 + 70 * 0.30 = 51% equity.
So we should expect to win about half of the times we go all-in preflop versus this opponent.
AcAs, AcAd, AcAh, AsAd, AsAh, AdAh – total 6 possible combinations.
How many ways we can have AK? – 16 (you can count yourself).
Now more interesting question: How many ways our opponent can have AA when we have Ad in our hand?
AcAs, AcAh, AsAh – total of 3 possible combinations.
So when we were dealt an Ace chances that our opponent was dealt two Aces are less by 50% Our Ace blocks half of his combinations. We can say we have a ‘blocker’ to AA.
How to use this knowledge on practice?
Say our tight opponent open raises preflop from early position. We think he can have AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK or AQ. When we look at our hand we see that we were dealt AK. Now we can deduce distribution of hands in our opponent’s range. He has 3 combos of AA, 3 of KK, 6 of QQ, 6 of JJ, 9 of AK and 12 of AQ for a total of 39 combinations.
From here we know that he has:
AA 3 out of 39 - 8%,
KK 3 out of 39 - 8%,
QQ, JJ, AK 21 out of 39 - 54%,
AQ 12 out of 39 – 30% of time.
Now let’s calculate our equity versus his range:
AK has 8% vs AA,
30% vs KK,
50% vs QQ, JJ and AK,
70% vs AQ.
For a total of 8 * 0.08 + 30 * 0.08 + 50 * 0.54 + 70 * 0.30 = 51% equity.
So we should expect to win about half of the times we go all-in preflop versus this opponent.
Wednesday 23 January 2013
Where does our edge come from?
There are 3 main ways to get advantage over your opponent in poker:
- skills
- cards
- position
More skilled player is going to win money from less skilled player over the long run.
If your hole cards better then your opponents you obviously have an advantage.
If you have position on your opponent you can see what he does before have to act and this gives you advantage on each betting street.
How to use this knowledge in game?
For example you are in BB with marginal hand. It’s folded to loose, aggressive player OTB who open raises. SB folded. Should you fold? You have positional disadvantage, but you think that large percentage of time LAG player will have cards weaker then yours, so you have cards advantage. So it boils down to skills. If BTN is a good player and you don’t have big skills advantage over him it’s better to fold. But if you think you much better then him, then it’s possible that you can make profit from playing your hand.
Another example is that sometimes you can find yourself in such a great game where your skills advantage over other players is so great that you can profitable play almost any two cards from late positions. Your skills and positional advantage allow you to overcome your cards disadvantage.
- skills
- cards
- position
More skilled player is going to win money from less skilled player over the long run.
If your hole cards better then your opponents you obviously have an advantage.
If you have position on your opponent you can see what he does before have to act and this gives you advantage on each betting street.
How to use this knowledge in game?
For example you are in BB with marginal hand. It’s folded to loose, aggressive player OTB who open raises. SB folded. Should you fold? You have positional disadvantage, but you think that large percentage of time LAG player will have cards weaker then yours, so you have cards advantage. So it boils down to skills. If BTN is a good player and you don’t have big skills advantage over him it’s better to fold. But if you think you much better then him, then it’s possible that you can make profit from playing your hand.
Another example is that sometimes you can find yourself in such a great game where your skills advantage over other players is so great that you can profitable play almost any two cards from late positions. Your skills and positional advantage allow you to overcome your cards disadvantage.
How to calculate if you have correct odds to call?
I will demonstrate it on this very simplified example:
2/5 No Limit Holdem
UTG tight, passive straightforward player opens to 20, 2 players call, you have As5s OTB. You call, blinds folded.
4 players to flop, pot $85. Flop Tc7s2d. Checked to you. You check.
Turn Ks, UTG bets $75. All fold to you. You think that UTG has top pair, good kicker and he’s not going to fold to your raise. Also it’s unlikely that he has set because he wouldn't open TT or worse pair UTG and he would cbet KK on the flop. So you should calculate if call is profitable. You need to call $75 to win $160. There are 46 unknown cards left in the deck. 9 of them are spades which will give you winning hand. Odds of spade coming on the river are 9 to 37 or 1 to 4. So to make call of $75 profitable you need to win over $75 * 4 = $300 when you make your flush. There is $160 already in the pot. So you need to make extra $300 - $160 = $140 on the river. This means that you can’t profitable call if UTG has less than $140 in his remaining stack or if you think it’s unlikely he will call your over $140 bet on the river when flush card comes. Also don’t forget that if you make just $140 on the river you will not have any profit – you will break even, to make profit you need to win more than that.
2/5 No Limit Holdem
UTG tight, passive straightforward player opens to 20, 2 players call, you have As5s OTB. You call, blinds folded.
4 players to flop, pot $85. Flop Tc7s2d. Checked to you. You check.
Turn Ks, UTG bets $75. All fold to you. You think that UTG has top pair, good kicker and he’s not going to fold to your raise. Also it’s unlikely that he has set because he wouldn't open TT or worse pair UTG and he would cbet KK on the flop. So you should calculate if call is profitable. You need to call $75 to win $160. There are 46 unknown cards left in the deck. 9 of them are spades which will give you winning hand. Odds of spade coming on the river are 9 to 37 or 1 to 4. So to make call of $75 profitable you need to win over $75 * 4 = $300 when you make your flush. There is $160 already in the pot. So you need to make extra $300 - $160 = $140 on the river. This means that you can’t profitable call if UTG has less than $140 in his remaining stack or if you think it’s unlikely he will call your over $140 bet on the river when flush card comes. Also don’t forget that if you make just $140 on the river you will not have any profit – you will break even, to make profit you need to win more than that.
Reasons for betting
There are only 3 main reasons for betting. And while you are not playing against world class opponents you need to use one of those to find out if you should bet.
They are:
- betting for value
- bluffing
- betting to pick up pot equity
When you bet for value you want opponents with weaker holdings to call you.
When you are bluffing you want opponents to fold hands better then your.
Sometimes you have weak made hand and you don’t mind your opponents folding worse hands because those hands have a lot of equity versus your hand. So you want them to fold and give up their equity.
Remember, if you bet and you don’t exactly know which one of those reasons you used, you made a mistake.
They are:
- betting for value
- bluffing
- betting to pick up pot equity
When you bet for value you want opponents with weaker holdings to call you.
When you are bluffing you want opponents to fold hands better then your.
Sometimes you have weak made hand and you don’t mind your opponents folding worse hands because those hands have a lot of equity versus your hand. So you want them to fold and give up their equity.
Remember, if you bet and you don’t exactly know which one of those reasons you used, you made a mistake.
Why?
‘Why?’ is the most important question in poker. You should always ask yourself ‘Why?’:
Why did you bet?
Why this guy is watching TV when he's involved in massive pot?
Why preflop raiser checked on the flop?
Why are you so upset by bad beat?
Why are you so happy after winning pot?
Why do you keep playing at this table?
Why do you play poker?
etc
Great self check indicator is if you have done some action (like check, bet or fold) and you don’t have a good answer to ‘Why did you do that?’ question – you made a mistake.
Finding correct answers to all this questions can be challenging but the biggest challenge for a poker player is to make an effort to find correct ‘why?’ questions. This takes a lot of practice. So next time something happens stop and ask yourself ‘Why?’.
Why did you bet?
Why this guy is watching TV when he's involved in massive pot?
Why preflop raiser checked on the flop?
Why are you so upset by bad beat?
Why are you so happy after winning pot?
Why do you keep playing at this table?
Why do you play poker?
etc
Great self check indicator is if you have done some action (like check, bet or fold) and you don’t have a good answer to ‘Why did you do that?’ question – you made a mistake.
Finding correct answers to all this questions can be challenging but the biggest challenge for a poker player is to make an effort to find correct ‘why?’ questions. This takes a lot of practice. So next time something happens stop and ask yourself ‘Why?’.
Tuesday 22 January 2013
How to record live hand history
You need to use abbreviations to quickly record live hand. Do it ASAP after hand played out so you don't forget anything. Find your own style which is most comfortable to you. Main objective is to do it quickly and write down as much details as possible so you can reconstruct hand later after session during session review.
For example:
2c, HJ(500) opens 20, I call(600) JcTc in CO, c,c
4 to flop. (85) 2c5c7s, ck,ck, HJ 45, I r 130, f,f,c
HU turn (345) Qd, ck, I AI 285, f
Translates into this:
Blinds 2/5. 2 limp, Hijack with stack of $500 open raises to $20, I call in Cutoff with Jack of clubs and Ten of clubs having stack of $600. Blinds folded, limpers called. 4 players saw flop with $85 in the pot. Flop 2 of clubs, 5 of clubs, 7 of spades. Check, check, Hijack bets $45, I raise to $130, fold, fold, Hijack calls. Head-up to turn. Pot $345. Turn card Queen of diamonds. Hijack checks, I move all-in for $285 effective, Hijack folds.
For example:
2c, HJ(500) opens 20, I call(600) JcTc in CO, c,c
4 to flop. (85) 2c5c7s, ck,ck, HJ 45, I r 130, f,f,c
HU turn (345) Qd, ck, I AI 285, f
Translates into this:
Blinds 2/5. 2 limp, Hijack with stack of $500 open raises to $20, I call in Cutoff with Jack of clubs and Ten of clubs having stack of $600. Blinds folded, limpers called. 4 players saw flop with $85 in the pot. Flop 2 of clubs, 5 of clubs, 7 of spades. Check, check, Hijack bets $45, I raise to $130, fold, fold, Hijack calls. Head-up to turn. Pot $345. Turn card Queen of diamonds. Hijack checks, I move all-in for $285 effective, Hijack folds.
Table Position Terms
SB - Small Blind
BB - Big Blind
EP - Early Positions:
UTG - Under The Gun
UTG+1
MP - Middle Positions
LP - Late Positions:
HJ - Hijack
CO - Cutoff
BTN - Button or Dealer
BB - Big Blind
EP - Early Positions:
UTG - Under The Gun
UTG+1
MP - Middle Positions
LP - Late Positions:
HJ - Hijack
CO - Cutoff
BTN - Button or Dealer
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