Wednesday 23 January 2013

How to calculate if you have correct odds to call?

I will demonstrate it on this very simplified example:

2/5 No Limit Holdem
UTG tight, passive straightforward player opens to 20, 2 players call, you have As5s OTB. You call, blinds folded.
4 players to flop, pot $85. Flop Tc7s2d. Checked to you. You check.
Turn Ks, UTG bets $75. All fold to you. You think that UTG has top pair, good kicker and he’s not going to fold to your raise. Also it’s unlikely that he has set because he wouldn't open TT or worse pair UTG and he would cbet KK on the flop. So you should calculate if call is profitable. You need to call $75 to win $160. There are 46 unknown cards left in the deck. 9 of them are spades which will give you winning hand. Odds of spade coming on the river are 9 to 37 or 1 to 4. So to make call of $75 profitable you need to win over $75 * 4 = $300 when you make your flush. There is $160 already in the pot. So you need to make extra $300 - $160 = $140 on the river. This means that you can’t profitable call if UTG has less than $140 in his remaining stack or if you think it’s unlikely he will call your over $140 bet on the river when flush card comes. Also don’t forget that if you make just $140 on the river you will not have any profit – you will break even, to make profit you need to win more than that.

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